![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.pp.u-tokyo.ac.jp\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/AEW_poster_0818-1-1024x576.png\")
<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Can monetary incentives improve health behaviors in the long run, and do commonly used surrogate outcomes capture these effects? The authors study these questions in the context of vaccination using a large-scale field experiment. The experiment combines commonly used surrogates\u2014vaccination intentions, intermediate behavioral proxies, and short-run vaccination\u2014with long-run administrative vaccination records. They first document that incentives increase vaccination rates in the long run: guaranteed \\$20 incentives raise COVID-19 booster uptake by 9 percentage points. Lottery-based incentives also increase long-run uptake, while prosocial incentives primarily accelerate vaccination. Second, using surrogacy methods, they study whether surrogates can predict long-run impacts. Although the surrogates are strongly correlated with eventual vaccination, the assumptions required for surrogacy methods are often violated, and they do not accurately predict long-run impacts. The findings highlight both the ability of incentives to change behavior and the importance of measuring long-run outcomes rather than relying solely on surrogates.<\/span><\/p>\n 9:30-11:15, Tuesday, August 18, 2026\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n *The seminar will be held online*<\/strong><\/p>\nDate & Time:\u00a0<\/h5>\n
Speaker:<\/h5>\n